tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21285274.post2856817462770335773..comments2023-11-03T05:42:04.524-07:00Comments on Pop Culture Institute: Pop History Moment: Taco Bell's Big Gamblemichael sean morrishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06336285190644141596noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21285274.post-15099144904744980742008-03-23T23:41:00.000-07:002008-03-23T23:41:00.000-07:00There you go folks! All clear?There you go folks! All clear?michael sean morrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06336285190644141596noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-21285274.post-15582121883637319742008-03-23T22:31:00.000-07:002008-03-23T22:31:00.000-07:00According US SPACECOM the odds of any given person...According US SPACECOM the odds of any given person being hit by Mir debris are 1 in 2 billion. <BR/><BR/>If a human occupies roughly two square feet when viewed from directly above then the target has 800 `human target sizes' in it (40x40=1600; 1600/2 = 800). <BR/><BR/>So, let's take 2 billion to one being the odds that a person will be hit, using the SPACECOM numbers. So, the odds that the target will be hit is: <BR/><BR/>Ptarget = Pperson * 800 <BR/><BR/>Ptarget = 5 x 10-10 * 800 = 4 x 10-7 <BR/><BR/>...or 1 in 2,500,000. So, using SPACECOM numbers, we get slightly crappy odds of getting a free taco (if we live in the U.S. or Canada). <BR/><BR/>Of course, let's check that over using some better numbers. This in no way takes into account such wonders as the fact that they're trying to steer Mir for a certain spot. <BR/><BR/>Earth's surface area is ~ 5*10^14 square meters. Assume that about 1000 different 1 square meter `plots' are hit with significant chunks. Assume these are independent (not true, but a start). <BR/><BR/>That gives 1 : 500,000,000,000 chance of any given square meter being hit, assuming a random reentry. If there are around 150 square meters of target (not exact, I know) then that means approximately 1 : 3.33 billion for the taco<BR/><BR/>Truly yours,<BR/><BR/>JavierAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com